Scientists believe monkeypox has been circulating in the UK for years
The number of confirmed cases in the UK outbreak has risen to 78, with scientists speculating that the virus may have been spreading undetected for some time.
Seven more cases of monkeypox have been confirmed in England, bringing the total number of cases in the UK to 78. Scientists believe the virus has been circulating undetected for several years.
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Monkeypox has been reported in at least 20 countries in the last month, with more than 200 confirmed cases and dozens more under investigation. Monkeypox is usually found in west and central Africa.
It’s the first time the virus has spread outside of Africa, with all previous cases linked to travel to areas where the infection is endemic or imported animals carrying the virus.
Read More: 37 Cases Of Monkeypox Reported In The UK
The United Kingdom has the highest number of confirmed cases, with health protection teams isolating persons who test positive and their close connections, as well as administering smallpox vaccinations, which are cross-protective against monkeypox. Guys who have sex with men account for a large percentage of instances (MSM).
While efforts to limit the outbreak continue, experts are trying to figure out how the disease spread to so many nations in such a short period.
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Many believe that monkeypox had been circulating in the UK or Europe at low levels, unnoticed, for several years before it reached the MSM group and flared up.
Prof David Heymann, who chairs a WHO expert panel on infectious hazards to global health, believes the virus may have infiltrated the UK two or three years ago and expanded under the radar.
Between 2018 and 2019, four cases of monkeypox were confirmed in the United Kingdom, all of which were brought in by recent visitors from Nigeria. In 2021, three more instances with identical travel histories appeared.
“It could hypothetically be that the virus transmission amplified from this low level of transmission when by chance it entered the population that is at present amplifying transmission,” Heymann said. He stressed it was one of many hypotheses that needed further study before any conclusions could be drawn.
Monkeypox viruses collected from victims in the current outbreak bear a striking resemblance to the virus that spread from Africa to the UK, Israel, and Singapore in 2018 and 2019. They also have mutations that may have evolved during the virus’s low-level circulation.
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The virus was already in the country when the first official case of 2022 arrived in the UK on 4 May from Nigeria.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) revealed photos of monkeypox on May 14, and clinicians in sexual health clinics realized that some of their patients might be infected. Before the patients tested positive for monkeypox, they had tested negative for common diseases and doctors suspected a condition called disseminated gonococcal infection.
“This may be a virus that’s been circulating undetected for quite a while,” said Prof Marc Van Ranst, a virologist at the University of Leuven in Belgium. “They all have a common ancestor and that common ancestor probably dates back to 2019, though it’s too early to date with any kind of accuracy.”
It is unclear whether mutations are seen in the virus make the strain more transmissible in humans, but scientists point to the virus having evolved while infecting humans.
“We know that chronic infection is not a plausible scenario, and that means there has been a chain of transmission events that apparently went unnoticed,” Van Ranst said.
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The Covid pandemic may have played a role, as people had less contact with GPs and other health services during the crisis. Asked if the outbreak might not have come to light if sexual health clinics had not been alerted by the first UK case, Van Ranst said: “It’s entirely possible.”
Prof Oyewale Tomori, a virologist and adviser to the Nigerian government, said more studies were needed to understand what is happening.
“Perhaps it was spreading silently within the community until we had this flare-up following some of the changes in behavior we’ve seen,” he said.
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“Between 2019 and 2020 if anybody came up with a rash in any part of Europe, you’re not going to think of monkeypox, your thought would be other diseases that cause a rash.
“And if the system misses that one case, then of course that’s an opportunity for it to spread from one person to another. I think the amplification came where you have a lot of people gathering with very close contact.”
